There is a reason baseball has the best playoff races and days like today back it up. Three games to go until the end of the regular season and three teams in the NL still don’t know what their plans will look like in a week. Will it be playoff baseball under the bright lights of October or drinking fruity drinks with umbrellas under the hot sun.
The National League has three teams that have been unable to lock up their playoff spots despite numerous chances and now are forced to tough it out in what will certainly be a hectic final weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will be battling it out for two spots, the NL East crown and the wildcard. And if you have passed third grade math class, you can see that one team won’t make it.
One month ago, everyone thought the Brewers would be where the Cubs are right now: resting their starters, lining up the playoff rotation and putting Bernie Brewer on bodyguard duty to make sure nothing happens to CC Sabathia and his golden left arm. Practically no one thought that the Brew Crew would be playing Chicago the final weekend, trying to lock down their first playoff appearance since 1982.
Practically everything that could have gone wrong for Milwaukee has in that time span. Their bats shut it down. They went on a drastic dry spell, losing 16 of 19 games starting September 1. Ben Sheets finally got hurt. Ned Yost was fired and replaced by a guy who is most famous for being one of the worst third base coaches in recent history. And Sabathia still couldn’t beat the Cubs. If it wasn’t for Prince Fielder’s bat and late-inning heroics, they might actually be out of the race right now. Shocking for a team that was four games up as of late August.
Now they face a crucial three-game series for their season. Since Milwaukee got hot in May, they have played at times like the best team in the NL. Their only kryptonite has been the Cubs, the actual best in the league. Their inability to beat Chicago has been drastically apparent, something even a 5-8 record cannot attest to. The Cubs just have their number. Look no further than Sabathia. Since joining the team, against the Cubs he is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in two starts, against everyone else 10-1 with a 1.42 era.
If the Brewers are going to make it then they will have to overcome their arch-nemesis. If not, expect a large spike in beer sales in the greater Milwaukee area.
But those fans won’t be the only ones in a drunken stupor, Mets fans have been that way for weeks already. That is the only way to make sense of what has been happening to the Metropolitans. In the middle of September it seemed the Mets were ready to overcome their epic failures of last year. Jerry Manuel was the new boss and brought with him a more care-free attitude that livened up the clubhouse and brought Jose Reyes back from his Willie-Randolph induced coma. They had even overcome their atrocious (and that is an understatement) bullpen to take a three and a half game lead. Yet, if 2007 taught the Mets anything, it’s that the first 145 games don’t really matter.
That lead lasted for five games before the Phillies once again overtook them. This time, New York did not melt down. The team pulled themselves up, led by the bats of Carlos Delgado and Reyes and the arm of Johan Santana. And if it wasn’t for those three, who knows where they would be today.
Santana has pitched masterfully in September, throwing himself into the Cy Young and MVP races. His start against the Cubs probably saved their season. Monday was a blowout loss to a team that fielded half of it’s Triple A lineup that could have deflated any postseason hopeful and Wednesday’s loss saw the bullpen once again blow a lead, while the offense could not bail them out despite having a runner on third with no one out and the heart of the order up to bat in the bottom of the ninth inning. If not for Santana winning the game in between those two, the Mets would have lost three-out-of-four to a team that looked more like the Iowa Cubs and put them a game back heading into the weekend.
Instead they have a weekend series against the Florida Marlins on deck. The Marlins are the same team that ruined 2007. They blasted Tom Glavine on the final day of the season, eliminating them from the playoffs. If the Mets are still in contention Sunday, don’t bet on that happening again. Manuel has lined up his rotation perfectly with Santana going that day.
That leaves only the Phillies. Philadelphia has been the quietest team of the three this September, despite making the most noise. They have taken back the lead of the East, seen an MVP develop and almost mutely become the second best team in the league.
Since overtaking the Mets about a weekend and a half ago, Philadelphia has shown that this team is not going to give it up. Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer have put in stellar pitching performances, one after another. Brett Myers, despite getting roughed up recently, developed into a second ace in the latter half of the season. Oh, and Ryan Howard might become the first MVP to hit below .250.
Howard has put up huge stats once again this year. While not as good as he did in 2006, when he won the award or even last year, he leads the NL with 47 homeruns and 142 rbi. Throw away his .248 average, its not important how often he gets a hit, only that when he does they always come at the right times. Combine that with the fact that he has yet to miss a game, important for a team that has had to deal with injuries and disappointing results from Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, and Howard should be at the top of most ballots.
The Phils have overcome all of that to have the best position going into tonight. They are the only one of those three teams to hold a lead in the race. The Brewers and Mets are tied for the wild card, but the Phils are a game up on NY in the East. They also have the easiest opponent as a final series against Washington awaits. And if Joe Blanton and Moyer can’t get it done the first two games, Hamels will be on the mound for Sunday’s game. In fact all three teams will have their aces going the final day, with Sabathia on three day’s rest.
If Sunday does work out with all three in the mix, it should be an exciting day of baseball. I’ll be sitting in front of the television all day watching everything go down. The only question remaining is, which team will be joining me on the couch for Game One on Wednesday?
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