Nothing like a nice Monday afternoon to make time for a new entry. Also nothing like a mild Monday afternoon to start previewing the upcoming NFL season. Here is my Ms. Cleo impression for the NFC South division in expected order of finish.
1 New Orleans (11-5): The Saints were the darlings of the league two years due to Drew Brees' almost MVP season. 2007 was about the same for Brees, but completely different. You can't put the Saints' 7-9 season on his rocket arm completely, but the QB deserves a good amount of the blame.
Despite seeing his TD total increase by two, Brees' QB rating fell by seven points, completion percentage dropped three points, and most importantly his interceptions went up by seven. But there are two statistics that were more explanatory of how his struggles affected his teams.
In New Orleans' first four games Brees threw one touchdown to nine interceptions. Those resulted in four losses. The first four game of 2006 resulted to a more reasonable 4-2 ratio for Brees and a 3-1 record for his team.
Even more alarming was the QB's performance in losses and wins. In his team's seven wins, he threw 19 TDs and two picks. In their nine losses, it was a much more Rick Mirer like 9-16 ratio.
In spite of Brees' struggles, the biggest problem for NO was their 25th ranked scoring defense. They gave up 24.3 points per game and needed to vastly improve. Of course their biggest offseason addition was tight end Jeremy Shockey. Doesn't make much sense. Or does it?
With a defense that bad, it can't be revamped overnight. So adding a Pro-Bowl player who will add another dimension to an offense that was fourth in yards per game and 12th in points will help New Orleans in football's ultimate goal of scoring more points than your opponent. They might give up 21 points per game, but they should score 27.
To be fair, Sean Payton gets a big addition to his defense in defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. He should shore up the interior defensive line, creating better matchups for pass rushers and helping the defensive backfield.
2 Carolina (9-7): This prediction is more on a hunch than anything empirical. In 2007, the Panthers were mediocre defensively and bottom third bad offense. So what would make me predict a jump to a winning record and potentially a playoff spot? Three things.
First is a healthy Jake Delhomme. Before he was hurt and lost for the year, the QB had a 8-1 TD-Int ratio. His three replacements had a not so good 11-16 ratio. See the difference?
Dellhomme should be healthy -- John Fox has been playing with his voodoo doll to ensure this -- and when healthy, Delhomme is a good to very good player. His quarterback rating has steadied between 80.6 to 88.1 in his four full season (avg season: 22 TD-14 Int). A team plays much better when they have confidence in their QB and I doubt the Panthers offensive players could say that last year when Vinny Testaverde, Matt Moore, or David Carr was under center.
Secondly, there is no way Julius Peppers is a 2.5 sack a season player, which is what he was last year. The defensive end is too fast, too strong, too talented to repeat such a putrid season. Before last year, he had double figure QB kills in four of his first five seasons. A resurgence from Peppers should reinvigorate the pass rush and improve the defense. Something very important for a team with no player racking up more than 3.5 sacks last year.
Lastly, Deshaun Foster no longer gets phone calls in the 704 area code. The running back had 247 carries at a 3.5 yards per carry clip last season. That's not too good. His back-up, DeAngelo Williams, had 144 for a 5.0 ypc. Much better. Williams won't get all the carries, first round pick Jonathon Stewart should get his share as well. Either way, Carolina fans should expect a better running game and more than last year's 16.7 ppg.
3 Tampa Bay (7-9): I went fishing today, for fluke. And for some reason the Buccaneers came to mind.
Their second ranked defense was impressive last year, but it is getting old quickly. And we all know in the NFL, Father Time waits for no one. I expect to see a drop off this year, because I'm not sure how much first round pick Aqib Talib can help take the place of some of the old timers in the secondary (cough Ronde Barber cough).
On offense, Jeff Garcia was an oldie but a goodie last year but even his coach isn't sure he can repeat his performance in 2008. That is a troubling sign for an offense that was already mediocre last year (18th in the league). Joey Galloway being 36 also doesn't help.
And despite Fantasy Hall-of-Famer Earnest Graham's hilarious commercials for a rival website, past his touchdowns, he was mediocre as well with just a 4.0 ypc.
So it all comes down to the defense again this year. If they put up, I'll shut up. But I sure do like to talk.
4 Atlanta (4-12): O Falcons fans, this is going to be another lean year. Last year's troubles are well documented. In fact nightmares of Michael Vick, dogfighting, Chris Redman and Joey Harrington at quarterback may still haunt the dreams of those in the 404.
Sorry to say, this year will be just as bad record wise, but much better in terms of morale. Matt Ryan is now the cornerstone and something to look forward to. Enjoy him struggling this year because at least the future is here. Michael "Burner" Turner is a big name addition and should be interesting to watch. Jerious Norwood is the sleeper in the backfield and I expect stats just the same as Turner's.
Other than that, I don't think Xanax is too hard to get.
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